Shiji Information (002153): Three Questions and Three Answers to Overseas Cloud Transformation (Part Two)
Recent situation of the company We have recently communicated with investors in the research and roadshow of Shiji Information. It is worthwhile for investors to pay attention to the opportunities and risks of Shiji Information in 2020.Our Air Force has released a report in June 2018, “Nine Questions Overseas Cloud Transformation-Hotel on the cloud is approaching, Shiji is trying to reach the world.” After that, we found that there are currently three issues that investors are focusing on. Comment on whether Shiji is competitive with giants / startups globally?At the product level, the company’s core system is based on a cloud-native architecture, which realizes the microservices of the business and the connection of data. The traditional giants of the earlier hotel industry had an advantage at the product level. In terms of the scale of the sales service network, the company has been in the global scope within 4 years.It has more than 500 people covering four continents, and overseas teams in more than 15 countries. It can fully serve customers in different geographical regions, and it has obvious advantages over earlier startups. Where are the barriers of Shiji?According to the company’s announcement, Shiji Hong Kong’s total borrowings from subsidiaries in 2019.320,000 yuan, mainly used for operators and investment; among traditional giants, overseas hotel listed company Agilysys’s three fees in 20武汉夜生活网18 totaled 0.8.6 billion US dollars, Shiji ‘s spending has exceeded Agilysys; among innovative companies, according to Crunchbase, the average amount of funds raised by companies with a blockage is gradually around 1 billion US dollars, and it is expected that their size will be difficult to support the same magnitude as ShijiThe fragility of self-built hotels, Shiji’s current expenditure accounts for the annual net profit of large overseas hotel groups, and the proportion of operating net cash flow is high. Shiji’s short-, medium- and long-term income space?In the short term, according to the cost rate calculation, the corresponding potential income of Shiji’s current supplementary mass is 1.6 billion?2.900 million US dollars; in the medium term, PMS, POS, big data promotion progress is normal, the revenue volume is expected to reach 27.7 billion yuan; in the long run, the global hotel IT market is 10 billion U.S. dollars, Shiji tries to divide 15-20% of the market share to reach 1.5-20 billion US dollars in revenue. Estimates suggest that we keep our earnings forecast unchanged.Expected net profit for 2019/20205.1.3 billion / 6.1.4 billion, +10 in ten years.7% / 19.6%.The current contradiction corresponds to the 82x / 68x price-earnings ratio for 2019/2020.Maintain Outperform rating and 49.00 yuan target price, corresponding to 102.0 times 2019 P / E and 85.3 times the 2020 price-earnings ratio, 25% more upside than before. Risks (1) The landing of overseas hotel business is less than expected; (2) Oracle has the possibility of non-renewal; (3) Systematic estimation.