“To shut up!You are ashamed to say in front of me that you are the director of Donglin Township Police Station?The four of them,Man as a national official,Actually in full view,Openly gather people to gamble in the meeting room of the township government,What kind of nature is this?Since you admit that you are the director of Donglin Township Police Station,Then why don’t you know this?”Xia Jian beat the table,Shouted angrily。

Outside Feng Xiaowei’s office,Several eavesdroppers stood there。When they heard Xia Jian patted the table and yelled,Scared and ran away。They are also afraid,Xia Jian’s fire burned to them。
“Don’t give me this set,I am also a national official,To put it bluntly, my direct leader is not you。Since I haven’t left,This matter today”Ruorin looks like a dead pig is not afraid of boiling water。
Xia Jian ignored him,But take out the phone,I directly called Mao Jianmin, Director of the Public Security Bureau,One call,Mao Jianmin laughed and said:“Chief Xia!Mayor Chen just called me,Saying that you get something as soon as you go”
“Director Mao, stop joking,Ruo Lin of Donglin Township said he had not received an official transfer order,So not only did he not leave,But want to take care of today’s affairs,He is here”Xia Jian is straight to the point,Since Mayor Chen has already told Director Mao,There is no need for him to go around。
Director Mao said coldly:“Mischief!You give him the phone”
Xia Jianyi listen,Handed over the phone。Ruo Lin hesitated,But still took it。He only said:“Director!”There is no more sound,Keep your head down,Suffocated and flushed。till the end,He just said:“Ok!I just do”
Xia Jian took the call from Ruo Lin’s hands,And said to Director Mao:“Director Mao!The situation sent by Donglin Township is not optimistic。I want Director Zhao to clean up the team,May have to touch some people”
“Move around,Return those who can’t,I will replenish the new force。Donglin Township, I wanted to move,Have you over this time,I feel more relieved”Director Mao said very readily。
Xia Jian glanced at Zhao Chunling,Then he said to the phone:“Director Mao!Take office on the first day,I will give you a big gift,But you have to send someone to pick it up”
“Ha ha!Chief Xia is really smart,The person I sent is already on the way”Director Mao finished,Hung up。
Zhao Chunling hurriedly asked Xia Jian:“What did the chief say?”
”These four people,Director Mao has sent someone to pick it up。You go back right away,Clean up the existing people,Incompetent,Where did he go“Xia Jian in front of Ruo Lin,Said loudly to Zhao Chunling。
Ruo Lin glanced at Xia Jian and said:“Chief Xia!I’ll go back and hand over work to Deputy Director Zhao,But I remind you。Huang Shigui is not moving,He not only has the background,And Hu San from Huwangcun is his cousin。I don’t want to do this job well,But they are too powerful“

Dr. Wang hurried to the main house,Simply nodded to Ouyang Wuji,Said hello,I immediately went to Ouyang Jianfeng’s side,Simply take a look,Then ordered,Simply cleaned Ouyang Jianfeng,Then there are a bunch of tests on various instruments。

At last,Doctor Wang said to Ouyang Wuji:“Father Ouyang,Don’t worry too much,Young Master Ouyang, he just has some skin injuries,Didn’t hurt the bones,Just raise more!”
Words from Doctor Wang,It also let Ouyang Wou-ki’s hanging heart completely return to his stomach。
Ouyang Wuji ordered people to carry Ouyang Jianfeng back to the room,Then let Doctor Wang go to the room to treat Ouyang Jianfeng’s wound。
because,He has a lot to do next,He can’t accompany Ouyang Jianfeng all the time。
Just when Ouyang Wuji wanted to call Wen Tianli,Suddenly I saw a young man standing at the door!
“you,who are you?”Ouyang Wuji asked in horror。
Xiao Fan didn’t speak,Walked into the main house,Then I consciously found a sofa to sit down,Raised his wrist and glanced at his watch,Said slowly:“You still have fifteen minutes!”
One sentence,Let Ouyang Wuji know his identity immediately。
Want to come,He is the person Murong Huainan said will make his home disappear within half an hour!
Murong Huainan has always been ignored,at this time,Trembling body even more,Came to Xiao Fan’s side,Said:“Xiao,Brother Xiao,I,Can i leave now?”
Xiao Fan raised his eyes and glanced at Murong Huainan,Said coldly:“get out,Today,I don’t care about you,If there is another next time,I will let you know what life is better than death,What is pain!”
Murong Huainan was so scared that he quickly knelt on the ground,Kowtowing,Said to Xiao Fan:“I remember,I will be a good person in the future,I won’t do anything like this again!I will get out!”
“Get out!Is it possible for me to see you off??”Xiao Fan said coldly。
“I will get out,Get off now!”Once Murong Huainan finished speaking,Immediately he really rolled out the door of Ouyang’s house。
“presumptuous,Where do you treat me as Ouyang’s home,Just rely on you,Do you dare to call five and six here??”After Ouyang Xiahua got out of Murong Huainan,,Immediately shouted at Xiao Fan。
Xiao Fan raised his eyes and glanced at Ouyang Xiahua contemptuously,Then I took another look at Ouyang Wuji,Said lightly:“I thought Wen Tianli had already made things clear to you,I didn’t expect you guys to dare to challenge my temper,Tell me who is not good,Dare to move my woman,If I let you go like this,Wouldn’t our family become something anyone can bully??”
Ouyang Wuji and Ouyang Xiahua looked at each other,No one knows what to say to Xiao Fan at this moment?
Xiao Fan is right,Wen Tianli also beforehand,Really warned them,but,Who knew Ouyang Jianfeng could be so uncomfortable,He even dared to provoke his wife behind the two of them。
but,What’s the point of saying this now??

If two people go so smoothly,Go on peacefully,Maybe one day in the future we will encounter the same difficulties,So it’s not necessarily a bad thing to experience something earlier。

Xiao Fan came to the new base again,Since this new base has been handed over to Shen Lin for management,Xiao Fan rarely comes,Only at the beginning was I worried that Shen Lin could not handle it,Just took a look。
But Xiao Fan didn’t expect that in a short time,Shen Lin was able to plan and develop the new base in such an orderly manner,The training every brother should train。
Even if Shen Lin is not there,Now Yiming is taking over,And didn’t get any other influence,Xiao Fan feels that capable people can do well no matter what they do。
It so happens that Shen Lin and Yiming are both like this,This is why Xiao Fan dared to let them do it all these years。
In fact, the foundation they are laying is not for others,But for themselves,Everything they do now,Xiao Fan will give it to them in the future,The better they do,The better you will receive in the future。
When Xiao Fan came to the new base, he saw that nothing had become disorderly or a little chaotic because of the absence of Shen Lin.,It’s better than before。
Maybe this is a person’s influence,Shen Lin is usually good to these brothers,So they don’t want Shen Lin to worry, right,I hope Shen Lin can see them better when he wakes up。
Chapter four hundred and ninety three Working is hard
Xiao Fan held a meeting with the people in charge of the new base,In fact, Yiming is taking care of the new base now,But Yiming still has the base and company to take care of。
Sometimes Chu Yao will come to help,These people are very obedient to the management of Yiming and Chu Yao,Everyone thinks that since the person sent by Xiao Fan must be capable。
And they knew before that both Yiming and Chu Yao are very good people,They feel convinced,Xiao Fan simply held a meeting for them。
Specifically talked about the arrangements for these days,And there shouldn’t be any more missions in the new base recently,Must use this time to strengthen oneself,Strengthen all aspects of training。
Several people in charge are firmly stating that they will perform well,But actually these people really want to ask when Shen Lin can come back。
They also know that Shen Lin was seriously injured that day,They worry that if they ask, Xiao Fan will be upset,But in fact, Xiao Fan knew what they were thinking。
So I didn’t go around with them,Just tell them:“Behave well,When will Shen Lin come back is unknown,But if he gets better,Any good news will be notified in time。”
The brothers below are very happy,Because they think Shen Lin will wake up,As long as Shen Lin is still,They just waited for Shen Lin to come back and continue to manage them,Keep training them。
This is the character and ability of a person,Convinced many people,In fact, these brothers are not waste materials or incompetent people。
On the contrary, each of them has their own abilities,And they all have their own good aspects,When tasked,They can have a clear division of labor,Very well cooperated。

So everything is slaying dragons through their hands。

This is a terrible and huge assumption,Dahua Country actually has a dedicated family,Targeted at slaying dragons,Or occupation。
You know that the dragon is a sacred symbol of Dahua,People are actually spirit beasts,It’s just a more advanced existence of this other spirit beast。
And the dragon is the king of all spirit beasts,Nature is also an existence that humans respect。
Someone even carried the entire Dahua country in Tulong,This is incredible。
“This is fake!”
“fake?”Tu Cancan puzzled,“Shouldn’t you just say these are true,There is a change now。”
“Everything else is true,But this is fake!”
Xia Chenglong is so sure,Naturally because of his feelings。
The dragon looks mighty and sacred,It’s far worse than a real dragon,Mainly lies in the embodiment of Longwei。
He also has dragon blood in his body,It stands to reason that both sides will feel,But in his perception,The dragon inside him,Dragon blood is something that I disdain,Even with some hatred。
“Don’t mention what dragon is?”
“If you didn’t guess wrong,It should be similar to Jiao Yi,It’s just that this guy cultivates to a certain level,It’s almost finished getting rid of the dragon!”
Tu Cancan nodded,The way it turns out。
“All right,Nothing good,Still hurry up and find a way out,I always feel like here is not**all!”
“What is insecure,Some ice sculptures,Could it be that they will survive?”Tu Cancan doesn’t care at all,Did not realize the danger is approaching them step by step。
Right where they just came in,Cracks appeared on the surface of the ice sculpture,And this kind of crack slowly extends to the whole body。
Not just it,There are other guys touched by Tu Cancan,This happens。

“I’ll open an account tomorrow,Where is Xiao Xiao?”

“I have to discuss with my mother,Not sure。”
“Hey,Why don’t you think about where to go??”Abao thinks it’s time to enjoy it,I have been in the securities department for most of the day。
“I found the tank a few times,He is in the boxing gym,Go play?”Wang Shuai proposed,Leopard is very interested。
Chen Wenjin just wants to go home,Because I didn’t buy stocks today,He has to spend the next time again。
But Chen Wenjin hasn’t had time to speak yet,Abao’s phone rang,It happened to be red again,He took,Then say:“Have a suitable car,Let’s go see?Red trot,Two hundred and fifty thousand。”
Chapter One Hundred and One No?
“Send me back to get the money,Then go to see the car!”Wang Shuai is very excited,His first mobile toy in his life!
Chen Wenjin promised Abao,Just say:“If you are satisfied with this car,Wang Shuai, do you have to give Abao a big red envelope as a thank you fee??”
“no problem!Should!”Wang Shuai suspects that Chen Wenjin is revenge for the barbecue dinner last night,But he is in a good mood,Introducing Abao Intermediary,Take advantage of it。
“Look down on me?You all look down on me?Just that,Do i have to collect money?I’ll be so clear between brothers?”A leopard is a true face,Screamed very seriously。
Chen Wenjin thought about Abao, this is shooting himself in the foot,Maybe Abao thought Wang Shuai would actively persuade him to collect money, right?……
Wang Shuai said with a smile:“right,I forgot that Leopard is a million leopard!Row,Since it is a good brother,Don’t talk about money,Thank you so much!”

[Can pregnant women eat bamboo fungus]_Pregnancy_Can you eat it?

绔硅崻鏄潪甯稿悕璐电殑涓€绉嶈弻绫伙紝鍛抽亾鏋佸叾椴滅編锛屽叿鏈夊寮洪娆诧紝琛ュ厖澶氱钀ュ吇鐨勫姛鏁堬紝鍑嗗濡堝湪鎬€瀛曟湡闂磋韩浣撻渶瑕佽惀鍏伙紝鍚屾椂涔熼渶瑕佹竻鐑鼎鑲猴紝璋冭妭琛€鑴傦紝鎵€浠ョ鑽槸鍙互鐨勶紝鍚屾椂鑳界粰鑳庡効甯︽潵寰堝ソ鐨勫彂鑲层€傚瓡濡囪兘鍚冪鑽悧锛熻兘鍚冨鍑嗗濡堢殑濂藉锛氱鑽槸涓€绉嶇弽璐电殑鑿岀被锛屽懗閬撻矞缇庯紝涓嶄粎鑳芥彁楂橀娆诧紝鑰屼笖鑳借ˉ鍏呭绉嶈惀鍏汇€傚噯濡堝椋熺敤绔硅崻鍙互娓呯儹娑﹁偤锛岃皟鏁磋鑴傦紝棰勯槻鐤剧梾锛屾湁寰堝ソ鐨勬粙琛ヤ綔鐢ㄣ€傜鑽瘜鍚玍B銆乂D銆侀挋銆侀搧绛夊绉嶈惀鍏诲厓绱狅紝鑳介闃插瓡鏈熸娊绛嬨€佸績鐑︺€佽传琛€绛夌棁鐘躲€備笉杩囩鑽睘浜庡噳鎬чI donate money and donate money, I do n’t know how to do it, I do n’t know how to do it, I do n’t know how to do it, I do n’t know how to do it, I do n’t know how to do it.Admittedly, you will be able to find out what is going on, what is going on, what ‘s going on, what ‘s going on, what ‘s going on, what ‘s going on, what ‘s going on, what ‘s going on, what ‘s going on, what ‘s going on, what ‘s going on, what ‘s going on, what ‘s going on, what ‘s going on, what ‘s going on, what ‘s going on, what ‘s going on?搧鑳介闃茶儙鍎垮厛澶╂€ц传琛€锛岄摐銆佺7銆侀捑鑳戒績杩涜儙鍎跨缁忕郴缁熺殑姝e父鍙戣偛銆备骇How to stack stacks, drills, and stacks, stacks, stacks, and stacks, and fans, and fans, and stacks, and stacks, and tools.€佹仮澶嶄綋鍔涖€傜鑽瘜鍚挋銆侀搧銆侀攲绛夊绉嶇熆鐗╁厓绱狅紝鑳介闃蹭骇鍚庤传琛€銆佺己閽欍€佸績鎯呬綆娌夌瓑鐥囩姸銆傛澶栵紝绔硅崻鍚湁鐨勫绯栬繕鑳芥彁楂樹骇濡囩殑鍏嶇柅鍔涳紝棰勯槻鐤The drama is prepared, the drill is done, the drill is picked, the patent is picked, the patent is not available, the effect is not available, and the effect is fried.It’s hard to get a good idea of silicon, and it’s hard to get a good idea. It’s very difficult to get a good idea. It’s very difficult to solve this problem. It’s hard to find out what’s going on.楃梾鑳藉姏銆傜鑽瘜鍚攲鍏冪礌锛岃兘淇冭繘瀹濆疂鐨勬櫤鍔涘彂鑲层€傛澶栵紝绔硅崻涓赴瀵岀殑閽欍€侀搧绛夊厓绱狅紝瀵逛簬瀹濆疂鐨勯楠笺€佺墮榻垮彂鑲诧紝琛€娑插惊鐜潎鏈夌泭澶勩€備笉杩囩鑽睘浜庡噳鎬ч鏉愶紝鑲犺儍鍔熻兘宸殑瀹濆疂寤鸿灏戝悆銆傜鑽€夎喘鎶€宸ч暱瑁欑鑽姣旂煭瑁欑鑽殑璐ㄩ噺宸竴浜涳紝鎵€浠ヨ喘涔扮殑鏃跺€欏彲浠ユ寫閫夎弻鏌勭矖澹殑鐭绔硅崻銆傝繕瑕佹敞鎰忕殑鏄紝鏈変竴绉嶇鑽殑鑿岃鏄煚妾粍鎴栨槸姗橀粍鑹茬殑锛岃繖绉嶇鑽湁姣掞紝涓嶈兘椋熺敤銆傜鑽甯哥殑棰滆壊鐣ュ井娉涢粍锛屽鏋滃緢鐧界殑璇濇湁鍙兘浜哄伐婕傜櫧杩囥€?

[Can I eat rice in the refrigerator for two days]_Can I eat_Can I eat

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Polyfluoro (002407) annual report comment: bad debt accrual results decline in 2019 business recovery is expected

Polyfluoro (002407) annual report comment: bad debt accrual results decline in 2019 business recovery is expected

Annual report income 39.

4.5 billion, net profit attributable to mother 0.

The 6.6 billion company released its 2018 annual report: it achieved operating income in 2018 of 39.

4.5 billion (+4.

70%); net profit attributable to mother 0.

6.6 billion (-74.

30%); net profit after deduction is -0.

10 ppm (-105%); gross margin is 26.

26% (+ 1% year-on-year.


The management expense ratio / sales expense ratio / financial expense ratio are 11 respectively.

47% (+2 YoY).

75 points) / 4.

25% (+0 year-on-year.

85pct) / 2.

80% (+0 year-on-year.


Preliminary contradictions in the company’s performance: (1) Accrual of bad debt provision for receivables of Zhidou Company1.

38 trillion; (2) Expansion of the stock incentive plan in 2017 and one-time termination and repurchase reset accelerated accrual of budgeted costs 0.

7.6 billion.

The traditional fluorinated salt faucet is solid and stable. Electronic hydrofluoric acid is cut into semiconductor grade. In 2018, the company sold 27 molecules of fluorinated salt, hydrofluoric acid (including ordinary hydrofluoric acid and electronic grade hydrofluoric acid) 4.

2 Nominal, ranking firmly in the global leader level.

The quality of the company’s electronic grade hydrofluoric acid has improved, reaching UPSSS level, successfully entering the semiconductor market and exporting to South Korea. It has developed many customers such as South Korea’s Xiubo Ruiyin, Samsung Products, Chongqing Super Silicon, Chongqing Texas Instruments, Shanghai Huali Microelectronics,There is plenty of room for import substitution in the future.

The production and sales of lithium hexafluorophosphate are booming, and the market share ranks first. At the end of 2018, the company has an annual production capacity of 6,000 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate, and the production and sales of 5,440 tons in 2018, ranking first in the industry.

The company plans to reach a capacity of 10,000 tons by the end of 2019, and continue to consolidate the industry’s leading similar companies.

The company merged the vertically integrated industrial chain of lithium hexafluorophosphate, which increased the production capacity and had cost advantages.

The company’s lithium hexafluorophosphate has an excellent customer structure. Domestic customers include BYD, Shanshan, Xinzhoubang, etc., and overseas customers include Mitsubishi, Mitsui, Ube, LG, etc.

Maintaining the “Recommended” rating company is the global leader in lithium hexafluorophosphate, with both process and cost advantages, and the actual output ranks first in the world, benefiting from the price increase of lithium hexafluorophosphate.

Each increase in the average tax-included price of lithium hexafluorophosphate by 1 million tons / ton can increase the company’s net profit attributable to its parent by 58 million yuan.

Affected by the decline in the price of some fluorinated salt products, we adjusted our profit forecast and estimated that the company’s net profit for 2019-2021 will be 3 respectively.

35 (-0.

22), 4.

08 (-0.

34) and 4.

6 billion.

The current anniversary corresponds to a PE of 32, 26 and 23 times for 2019-2021.

Maintain the “Recommended” level.

Risk Warning: Downstream Demand Is Less Than 杭州夜生活网 Expected, Lithium Hexafluorophosphate Price Fluctuation Risk, Policy Risk

Shiji Information (002153): Three Questions and Three Answers to Overseas Cloud Transformation (Part Two)

Shiji Information (002153): Three Questions and Three Answers to Overseas Cloud Transformation (Part Two)
Recent situation of the company We have recently communicated with investors in the research and roadshow of Shiji Information. It is worthwhile for investors to pay attention to the opportunities and risks of Shiji Information in 2020.Our Air Force has released a report in June 2018, “Nine Questions Overseas Cloud Transformation-Hotel on the cloud is approaching, Shiji is trying to reach the world.” After that, we found that there are currently three issues that investors are focusing on. Comment on whether Shiji is competitive with giants / startups globally?At the product level, the company’s core system is based on a cloud-native architecture, which realizes the microservices of the business and the connection of data. The traditional giants of the earlier hotel industry had an advantage at the product level. In terms of the scale of the sales service network, the company has been in the global scope within 4 years.It has more than 500 people covering four continents, and overseas teams in more than 15 countries. It can fully serve customers in different geographical regions, and it has obvious advantages over earlier startups. Where are the barriers of Shiji?According to the company’s announcement, Shiji Hong Kong’s total borrowings from subsidiaries in 2019.320,000 yuan, mainly used for operators and investment; among traditional giants, overseas hotel listed company Agilysys’s three fees in 20武汉夜生活网18 totaled 0.8.6 billion US dollars, Shiji ‘s spending has exceeded Agilysys; among innovative companies, according to Crunchbase, the average amount of funds raised by companies with a blockage is gradually around 1 billion US dollars, and it is expected that their size will be difficult to support the same magnitude as ShijiThe fragility of self-built hotels, Shiji’s current expenditure accounts for the annual net profit of large overseas hotel groups, and the proportion of operating net cash flow is high. Shiji’s short-, medium- and long-term income space?In the short term, according to the cost rate calculation, the corresponding potential income of Shiji’s current supplementary mass is 1.6 billion?2.900 million US dollars; in the medium term, PMS, POS, big data promotion progress is normal, the revenue volume is expected to reach 27.7 billion yuan; in the long run, the global hotel IT market is 10 billion U.S. dollars, Shiji tries to divide 15-20% of the market share to reach 1.5-20 billion US dollars in revenue. Estimates suggest that we keep our earnings forecast unchanged.Expected net profit for 2019/20205.1.3 billion / 6.1.4 billion, +10 in ten years.7% / 19.6%.The current contradiction corresponds to the 82x / 68x price-earnings ratio for 2019/2020.Maintain Outperform rating and 49.00 yuan target price, corresponding to 102.0 times 2019 P / E and 85.3 times the 2020 price-earnings ratio, 25% more upside than before. Risks (1) The landing of overseas hotel business is less than expected; (2) Oracle has the possibility of non-renewal; (3) Systematic estimation.

Ren Zeping-the best investment opportunities in China’s new round of reform and opening up to start a new cycle

Ren Zeping: The best investment opportunities in China’s new round of reform and opening up to start a new cycle

Ren Zeping: The best investment opportunity is in China. A new round of reform and opening up will start a new cycle Ren Zeping WeChat public account: Ze Ping macro In the market’s most pessimistic moment, we issued a continuous optimistic voice on the prospects for the transformation of China’s economic reform: The best investment opportunity is in China!

  Many A shares are cheap now.

  From 2016 to 2018, the Chinese economy was L-shaped and fluctuated in the short term.

From the second half of 2018 to the first half of 2019, a bottom will be established for the second time, and a second bottom should initially appear in 2019.

Compared with the first half of this year, the downward pressure of the economy in the second half of 2018 will increase, mainly due to the combination of internal and external demand.

  At present, our policies have begun to make fine-tuning adjustments, loose monetary structure, and active fiscal policy efforts. It should be said that this time the economy is down, there will be policy pockets.

  There will be structural easing later, monetary and fiscal policies will be adjusted and fine-tuned, but not flooding.

  The world economy is still recovering, but it is likely to peak. It faces two major challenges: the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike capital flows back to the United States and trade frictions.

  The best response to Sino-US trade friction is reform and opening up.

A new round of reform and opening up will start a new cycle of the Chinese economy.

  We should neither be arrogant nor arrogant.

China’s new economy is actually very dynamic, or the most dynamic place in the global new economy is not in the United States, but in China.

Globally, China is actually very tolerant of innovation.

  Buy health, buy happiness, buy services, these are the best investment opportunities in the future.

  Reform is the biggest dividend, and reform will open a new era for China.

China’s production capacity has been fully cleared, and we are standing at the beginning of a new period.

  I often get asked questions. When there are some twists and turns in the Chinese economy, many people will say whether to allocate US dollar assets, and what investment to make overseas?

I have standard answers to these questions, and the best investment opportunity is in China!

  The following is Dr. Ren Zeping ‘s speech on August 4: Now, many A-shares are very cheap. Recently, the stock market is adjusting, and the actual changes at the same time. The news you see is mostly negative energy, and even some economists have begun to criticize our policies.
However, I am more optimistic about the medium and long term.

I think many issues need to be viewed comprehensively. Everything is two-sided. For example, if we deleverage, how can there be no pain in deleveraging?

Some people seem to be happy without deleveraging, but there is always a pain to choose. There is no history in which the economy has no pain in the process of deleveraging. Everyone hopes that the currency will be released, but in the long run, the currency is released.Depreciation and accumulation of financial and debt risks must be the case.

  Everything has two sides.

Let’s talk about the current A-share market. I think everyone in the A-share market is pessimistic.

Why did so many people shout 10,000 points at 5,000 points is not a dream?

The risk is rising, and the chance is falling. Now, many A shares are very cheap. The risk now is much smaller than the risk two years ago and three years ago.

In the long run, many stocks in this market are really cheap, it’s just a matter of time.

So I think many things are two-sided and dialectical.

  There will be structural easing later, but flood irrigation is definitely not aimed at the economy.

I proposed the “L-shaped economy” in 2015, and China’s economy was the bottom of the transition from 2016 to 2018.

From 2016 to 2017, the first small cycle bottomed out, and then the economy began to fall again in 2018. It should be the downward pressure in the second half of 2018.

This time the large-scale will see a second bottom roughly in the first half of 2019.

However, I personally do not think that the economy will run out of control. The fine-tuning of the economy this time has a bottom.

  Target policy.

Generally speaking, the current policy adopts deleveraging, capacity reduction, inventory reduction, cost reduction, and shortcomings, so this approach is all right.

However, some details may need to be improved, and the structure needs to be adjusted. The general direction is definitely correct.

But it must be painful in the short term.

For example, the tightening of liquidity. I think this liquidity will remain tight until the second half of this year, but it will be relatively structurally relaxed, mainly in the areas of infrastructure and small and micro and the real economy. Structural easing may be implemented later, But definitely not flooding.  Trade frictions: The best response is China-US trade frictions in reform and opening up.

Judging from the centuries-old laws of the rise and fall of world powers and the change of leadership, the trade war is an inevitable phenomenon and a challenge that China will face at this stage of development. Do you think the United States will naturally give up world leadership?

The two trade wars, and even the cessation of the protectionist flag, are due to disputes over world leadership caused by differences in development models, ideologies, cultural civilizations, and variables. The reference model for future evolution is not the past four.The pattern of Sino-US trade friction in the past ten years cannot be compared with the current relationship between the United States and Europe and Japan. Instead, reference should be made to the evolutionary model of the change in British and American world leadership and the Japan-US trade war.

I’m afraid we must have a clear understanding of this issue.

  The Sino-US trade frictions indeed reflect that China still has a lot of work to do in the area of reform and opening up.

Frankly speaking, we have a lot of work to do in reducing tariffs, liberalizing investment restrictions, internal review, variable reform efforts to promote reform and opening up, and establishing a higher level of market economy and open system. This is something we objectively acknowledge.
  Judging from the data, the current GDP of the United States is about 19 trillion US dollars, accounting for 24% of the world.

China is now 12 trillion U.S. dollars, accounting for about 15% of global GDP. China and the United States together account for 40% of global GDP. The third place is Japan, which accounts for a little more than 5%, but our fraction.
This is indeed the era of giants, but more importantly, the Chinese economy is still growing at a rate of more than 6% per year, and the United States is averaging 2% per year. The recent rate may be higher again.

But time is good for us, and what the United States fears most is time that continues to develop.

However, I do not think that many issues such as trade are lost to everyone. I think we can achieve a win-win situation.

The international trade problem must be a win-win situation, but it has a large income distribution effect.

  For us, I think we need to stabilize and do our own thing.

Don’t lose what the older generation taught us.

The rules of the game in this world are naturally made for the strong. Don’t try to challenge it.

When we become stronger one day, it will naturally be in your favor, but it is not necessary to be more open and reformed. Your values and ideology can be recognized by the world, and you will naturally get a relative part.

I think this is the case.

  Therefore, I have three basic judgments on Sino-US trade frictions: long-term or severe; this is an obstruction in the name of protectionism; our best response is reform and opening up, nothing else, do our ownThings are enough.

  China’s largest demographic dividend comes from its perception of economic expectations from 1962 to 1976.

In 2009, when I first arrived at the Development Research Center of the State Council, our team put forward a judgment in the country that the Chinese economy may always say goodbye to the era of high growth. The Chinese economy will transform in the growth stage and change gears.

Why speed up and shift?

The simple and certainty is that the demographic dividend is getting farther and farther away. We must shift from factor-supplemented growth to innovation-driven growth.

Regarding China’s population and economy, why is it growing fast?

The model is called capital labor technology, or in short, it is a good system that releases people’s ability to create wealth.

  Everyone remembers that China’s largest demographic dividend came from the baby boom from 1962 to 1976.

Many characteristics of China’s economic growth and economic structure are related to these people.

Simply put, China’s high growth in the past was done by these young people.

What we said about aging recently is that this group of people is getting older.

The past 20 years have been the golden age of real estate. This group of people got married and had children to buy a house.

  People are the source of economic growth and the fundamental trend of all consumption upgrades.

The group of people born between 1962 and 1976 determined many of the main characteristics of China’s economic growth and economic structure.

This group of people from 1962 to 1976 was in the 90’s, 20’s and 30’s. When they were playing, there were many people, young, cheap, and coupled with reform, China must have high growth.

  From 1978 to 2017, China’s average annual growth rate was 9%.

5%, the average annual growth from 1978 to 2008 was 9.



8% is real GDP growth. If we add prices, our real nominal GDP growth is 13% -15%.

This means that in the past 30 years, your annualized return has been below 13%, and you haven’t even ran GDP.

So the chance that the past thirty or forty years has created wealth for us is amazing.

Of course, there is still a background. In fact, the past three to forty years has been a situation of currency oversupply. In the long run, it is a currency oversupply.  We made a calculation. From 1978 to 2018, the average annual growth rate of China’s M2 (broad money supply) in the 40 years was 15%.

This means that if you do not invest, the banknotes in your pocket are depreciating at a rate of 15% per year. If you don’t feel it, you can think about Shanghai house prices ten years ago.

Well, the rich who were born between 1962 and 1976 were in their 90s in the 1990s.

Now, in 2018, was born between 1962 and 1976 and is now 42 to 56 years old. Correspondingly, the mainstream in China is now 42 to 56 years old. The former express delivery brother has become a delivery tycoon, so this is the distribution of China’s age from 1962 to 1976.The people who were born are now the backbone of our positions.

80% of our bank’s high net worth customers were born between 1962 and 1976. The population was the backbone of China’s current society from 1962 to 1976.

Everyone said that now is the world of the post-80s and post-90s, but it is not true.

Some people say that the Internet is post-80s and post-90s. In fact, the Internet is the post-70s that invest in post-80s and make post-90s money.

  There is also real estate. The people who buy a house are 20 to 50 years old.

First home purchases in the 北京夜生活网 20s and 30s, and improved homes in the 35s and 50s are the so-called secondary home purchases.

So now China is entering a major real estate market for improved resettlement.

Demographic factors have a huge impact on economic growth and economic structure.

Then China is such a population age distribution, so China ‘s rapid growth is very normal, and China ‘s development is very normal, that is, “we are moving from a high-speed growth stage to a gradual development stage”. This is a natural law.

  However, everyone must know that the economies that have successfully shifted gears have halved their economic growth.

And what is China’s new growth platform?

We expect it should be 5% to 6%.

Since the Second World War, more than a hundred of the world’s catch-up economies have yearned for an increase in per capita levels, because some want to be transformed, as if 北京桑拿体验网 everyone wants to be rich, but there are always fewer successful people. The world totalIt only accounts for less than 20%, so seeing more than a hundred catch-up economies, in the past nearly a hundred years of history, what is the real success?


  From developing economies to developed economies, the probability of success is only a little over 10%. Such a probability of success is a big challenge for China.

On the surface, speed-up shifting means that China is going to carry out a new reform.

  Short-term economic budget: The world economy is in a new round of growth cycle, facing two major challenges. From the perspective of short-term economic conditions, the world economy is in a new round of growth cycle.

After the 2008 economic crisis, the United States recovered in 2012 and Europe recovered in the second half of 2016, and more and more economies will join the recovery process.

  What is the impact?

Affects China’s exports.

Our exports were negative growth in 2015 and 2016, but in 2017 and the first half of 2018, Chinese exports began to recover.

  What is the challenge?

I think the first challenge is for the Fed to raise interest rates.

As you can see, the recent economic growth in Europe and Japan, and the main indicators of the United States are all peaking. The difference is that due to repeated tax cuts, the US recovery cycle has been lengthened.

Then we look at the unemployment rate in developed economies. The unemployment rate in the United States has reached a record low. That is, the United States is fully employed. The United States is growing and absorbing employment. We must increase wages.

So the pressure on wage growth and inflation is high in the United States.

Then you can see that the Fed has entered an anticipation of interest rate hikes, so the US dollar is strengthening. The stronger US dollar is causing global capital to regress in the United States. US dollar assets are increasing. At the same time, domestic tax cuts and external tariff increases. These two policiesThe merger will attract some companies to invest in the United States, because the tariffs on goods you export to the United States will increase, but if you invest in the United States, the decline in the United States will decline.

Therefore, it will always be China, and seeing that many emerging markets have recently started to return capital to the United States.

In fact, many emerging markets have recently seen some stock markets, including currency price adjustments.

  What is the second challenge?

It is the Sino-US trade friction.

This is a situation in our world economy.

  Buying health, buying happiness, buying services, these are all the best investment opportunities in the future. The domestic financial system, as you can see, after September 2016, one is the real estate transformation, the second is the financial deleveraging, plusThe rectification of financial supervision has led to a decline in the scale of social financing.

Our current broad money supply hits a record low. What is the concept?

It is the ebb that the entire liquidity is ebb.

Then after the ebb of liquidity, the financing pressure of enterprises has been relatively large recently.

  At present, the central government’s policy is to loosen money, strictly monitor and strengthen reform.From April to June, two directional cuts have been made, which means a clearer signal is released.

What signal?

It is that we should begin to loosen the real economy and small and micro enterprises, but not flooding, but through strict supervision, it has blocked financing channels in those places it does not want to flow to.

Therefore, the so-called tight credit and strict supervision include that the derivation of currency creation credit is not as smooth as before.

In general, you can pay attention to the current form of loan funds for enterprises, which means that the differentiation of enterprises is relatively serious.

  Since the State Council held an executive meeting in July, it has called for a more proactive fiscal policy.

But a difference of opinion emerged between the former interim budget expert and the Ministry of Finance experts.

Frankly, we do need fiscal strength now.

Because our fiscal revenue exceeded the growth rate of economic GDP in the first half of this year, tax cuts are needed at this time. Therefore, the Political Bureau meeting on the second quarter of July 31 should be a clear signal.

In the second quarter, I basically made a policy adjustment in the second half of this year. I think there have been so many times.

You can follow.

  The first is to implement a proactive fiscal policy, and then play a role in expanding domestic demand and structural adjustment in a proactive fiscal policy.

What is expanding domestic demand?

I think that the infrastructure development efforts in the second half of the year may make it relatively easy to obtain funds on local financing platforms, and some investment platforms may be saved.

  The second is tax reduction.

However, China’s tax reduction has not been too strong. I suspect that in the future, we will have greater efforts to reduce taxes.

  The third is to make up for the shortcomings.

I think this time we have seen the trade friction between China and the United States clearly. The prosperity of our new economy. We claim that our unicorn enterprises are second only to the United States, but the prosperity of our new economy is a superficial phenomenon. Our foundationTechnology and basic scientific research are not enough. Our large number of new economies are based on the application of technology, so we must make up for shortcomings here.

  The fourth is to prevent risks. Everyone pays attention to one called: “Resolutely do deleveraging work.” Of course, we must grasp the structure of strength.

So I think the whole financial budget should be relatively tight in the second half of the year, but the structure may be relaxed.

  The fifth is reform and opening up.

Reform is the biggest dividend, and reform will open a new era for China.

  The sixth is economic growth.

As far as the Chinese economy is concerned, from 2016 to 2018, we are all concerned about building the bottom.

I summarize it as a progressive and structural double bottom.

Let’s first look at the structural bottom. Last year, China’s GDP growth rate was 6.

9%, then our secondary industry is below 6.

9% of our service industry is higher than 6.

What does 9% mean?

  When many people are saying that China is still engaged in industry and investment, in fact we are entering a new era, and China is entering an era triggered by service industry and consumption.

Last year, the secondary industry accounted for 40% and the tertiary industry service industry accounted for 51%.

In recent years, our consumer service industry has surpassed the secondary industry. In the future, our biggest investment opportunity is actually in consumption.

Consumption upgrade is divided into four stages. The first stage is the issue of food and clothing in the 1980s; the second is durable goods in the 1990s;

If you have a car and a house, you will definitely buy health, happiness, and services. These are the best investment opportunities in the future.

  Focusing on this, we can see that the growth rate of the information software and information technology service industry in 2017 was as high as 20% and nearly 30%.

In the case of digital growth in other industries, this industry has grown by more than 25%.

What kind of industry is this?

It’s called Internet +.

We further subdivide this industry, we look at mobile games, online shopping carts, travel platforms, big data cloud computing, these industries are all 35%, more than 80% growth.
China’s current economy can be said to be a two-day battle.
So what are the characteristics of this industry?

Most of our new economic unicorn companies are basically born in this, and this industry basically has two characteristics.

  What is the first characteristic?

The upgrading of consumption is driven by the people’s good life.

The second characteristic is all transboundary.

  We should neither be arrogant nor arrogant.
China’s emerging economy is actually very dynamic, or the most dynamic place in the new global economy is not in the United States, but in China.

Globally, China is actually very tolerant of innovation.
You might say that the Internet + these industries are all cross-border. Now taking a cell phone in China, eating, drinking, and having fun are all solved. There may not be any in Europe.


Because everyone can see that this innovation is all cross-border, but they have the protection of strong trade unions in Europe. To engage in a taxi platform, taxi drivers have taken to the streets. They have to engage in new retail.The waiter took to the street.

This problem does not exist in China. China is the same as the United States. It is very open and innovative. Especially where there is no state-owned enterprise, it is more open.

Therefore, we have been very tolerant of innovation for so many years.

What is the basic attitude of our policy towards innovation?

You do it first, do it well, I’ll recognize you.

Not so good, I’ll clean up you again, basically such a concept.

So we have a new economic rise. I think this is a structural underpinning.

  You can’t find your chance in China. Where can you find it?

  I often get asked questions. When there are some twists and turns in the Chinese economy, many people will say whether to allocate a dollar asset, to exchange foreign exchange to speculate on US stocks, and to invest overseas?

  I have standard answers to these questions, and the best investment opportunity is in China.

There are 1.4 billion people in China and 3 in the United States.

200 million people, Japan 1.

300 million, 700 million people in Europe, 500 million people in the euro area, Europe ‘s largest economy, Germany is 80 million people, South Korea, which is known as the eighth largest economy, is 50 million people, and the world ‘s is more than 7 billion.China is 1.4 billion.

What’s more important?

China is still growing at a rate of 6-7% per year, so the best investment opportunities must be in China, and the best things are here.

You find your opportunity in China, where do you find it?

  Then we look at China’s investment. Frankly speaking, the pressure on investment is very great this year, because the entire financing is shrinking, and then because of fiscal consolidation, our infrastructure investment has decreased significantly in the first half of this year. Last year was a 19% increase. This yearReduce to a value.

However, everyone notices that I believe that infrastructure investment has bottomed out because infrastructure fiscal policies need to be strengthened in the second half of the year, and our infrastructure investment may rebound in the second half of the year.

  In the medium and long term, I am optimistic about the Chinese economy. What I talked about last year is that China ‘s production capacity has been fully cleared. We are standing at the beginning of a new capacity cycle. We can see that many of our original traditionsThe industry’s profitability is actually very good, but now for various reasons, he has not expanded new capacity.

  I estimate that after 2019, everyone will see new capacity expansion.

  In the medium and long term, I am optimistic about the Chinese economy.

  Why optimistic?

The first I think our policy has found its strength.

Secondly, we have solved many problems of policy failure.

The potential of the third China is still very large.

You seem to say that many people are pessimistic now. What big turning point is it? How can there be so many turning points?

China’s potential, we take the example of urbanization, China’s urbanization rate in 1978 17.
92%, how much are we now?

We are now 58.
5%, overall is over 80%, how can China achieve 70%.

China’s urbanization is at least a decade away.

What’s more, we still have 300 million migrant workers who do not yet have stable residences and stable jobs in the cities. The potential of these migrant workers to be civicized has to be huge for China.

What’s the key?

The key is not to toss yourself.

Unswervingly carry out reform and opening up.

  This is my basic judgment on the Chinese economy: there is downward pressure in the short term, but there is optimism in the medium and long term and the potential is great.

The L-shaped bottom of the economy in 2016-2018 may have a little pressure in the second half of 2018, and you should see a new bottom in the first half of 2019.

I think the overall financial budget is still tight, but it will be structurally loose.

In the second half of the year, infrastructure has been strengthened, and our urbanization potential is great.

The real estate reform continues, and the dividends of the shed reform monetization policy have basically ended. It will have a more important impact on transforming our real estate market.

  Background and common sense of trade frictions Sino-US trade war.

I would like to talk about some backgrounds on the Sino-US trade friction. After we have looked at these backgrounds, everyone can trigger it.

In fact, many problems are not predictions. I think we respect common sense and make guesses based on common sense.

I will tell you about the basic background and common sense of the Sino-US trade friction, and I believe that everyone will trigger their own answers.

  First, after the 2008 financial crisis, the world, including China and the United States, also rely on currency to release water. We have 4 trillion yuan and the United States has QE (gradual easing). Then currency release and large asset prices will naturally result inThe income gap has widened.

The gap between the rich and the poor in the United States has widened.

  Secondly, the US trade deficit has returned to 2009 and is still close to expectations.

China contributed 46% of the US trade deficit, nearly half.

  Third, the US manufacturing industry has experienced a severe recession. We can see that the US manufacturing industry has actually declined significantly in the past two or three decades.

  Fourth, you can see that China now accounts for 15% of global GDP, the United States accounts for 24%, and China and the United States together account for 40%.

What’s more important?
China is growing at an annual rate of 6%, and the United States is growing at 2%.

According to our estimates, in about ten years, China will surpass the United States as the world ‘s largest economy.

It is also very likely that at that time we had just entered the comprehensive field of biology, with 1.4 billion people in China and 3 in the United States.

200 million, we weigh our Power.

In the 1980s, during the Japan-US trade war, Japan’s GDP at that time accounted for 40% of the United States, and now China’s GDP has accounted for 60% of the United States, and in ten years we will exceed him.

Do you think America will naturally give you the throne?

  So what exactly caused the China-US trade deficit?

  I think the first is related to the division of labor.

As you can see, let ‘s take a simple example. Some say that we export Apple mobile phones. We buy chips from the United States, LCD screens from South Korea, and then assemble them in China. We are only one hundred dollars worth of products.Earn less than ten yuan in the middle.

But trade volume and trade surplus are counted in China.

This is related to the global division of labor.

This is the first one.

  The second is the model of over-consumption in the United States. Even American economists often say that the world is a big deal for the United States. Americans print paper money to buy our stuff. The American savings rate is only 100%.A dozen.

Now he is cheap and sells well.

So it has something to do with America’s own over-consumption model.

Because you can see that the US deficit is even between China and the United States. What was it in the 1980s and 1970s before China and the United States?
It is the United States and Japan, so it is partly related to the American model, and he has to make adjustments himself.

  What is the third?
The United States restricts technology exports to China. The simplest way to ease the trade deficit between the two countries is to export technology to China.

You sold me so many high-tech things, but he imposed technical export restrictions on us, so the Sino-U.S. Trade deficit, I think the two sides objectively, there are some places where our reform and opening up are not in place, and some of our auto tariffsThe US car import clearance is 2.

5% we are 25% and our high end 45%.

Frankly speaking, in the past many years, many conventional automobile factories have been protected. I think this is also the time to open. We have our reasons.

But the United States also has American reasons. If you really want to engage in a trade war, I will ignore both defeats. Then, we might as well sit down and talk about it.

At present, trade complementarity between China and the United States is still relatively tense.

After another ten or two decades, I think we can continue to win-win.

  Reform is the biggest dividend. Reform will open up a new era for China. These are the main ideas extended above: First, I think that the Chinese economy in 2016-2018 is generally an L-shaped trend, with some short-term fluctuations.

From the second half of 2018 to the first half of 2019, a bottom will be established for the second time, and a second bottom should initially appear in 2019.
Compared with the first half of this year, the downward pressure of the economy in the second half of 2018 will increase, mainly due to the combination of internal and external demand.
  Secondly, our policy has started to make fine adjustments, monetary structure is loose, and active fiscal policy has been launched. It should be said that this time the economy is down, there will be policy pockets. This is the secondJudge.

  The third is financial supervision. No one should be determined to deleverage the central financial supervision with any luck.

I think the determination this time is very strong.

This time the determination of financial deleveraging can refer to our determination to reduce production capacity and inventory, and it will definitely achieve the effect of so-called iron scratching and leaving marks.

The short-term is painful, but the long-term will win us a better future.

  The central government’s policy agreed that it was called “One Five One Three”.

One requires high-quality development and one main-line supply-side structural reform; five major tasks: de-capacity, de-stocking, deleveraging, cost reduction, and shortcomings; three major battles, defense and resolution of major risks, precision poverty alleviation and pollution prevention.

From the current point of view, the effect of de-capacity and de-stocking was better in 2016-2017.

The focus of policy has now shifted to deleveraging, reducing costs and making up for shortcomings.

  Reform is the biggest dividend, and reform will open a new era for China.
The Chinese economy is standing at the beginning of a new cycle. We are convinced that the concept of a market economy has taken root in this country. The new collective leadership of the central government has demonstrated the courage and determination to promote reform.

Looking ahead, we are convinced that China’s economic prospects will be brighter after the baptism of reform and transformation!